interesting data bite

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/industrial-output-edges-down-in-january-ending-streak-of-four-monthly-gains-2018-02-15 Capacity utilization edged down to 77.5% in January from 77.7 in the prior month. The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation’s factories, mines and utilities. It’s still well below pre-recession levels, above 80%, that could fan production costs and prices

Weekly Update, February 11, 2018

Weekly Reads Hoya Capital on REIT performance and valuation based on this week’s action https://seekingalpha.com/article/4145167-wild-week-upends-real-estate-markets Eric Parnell with a cautionary view of inflation https://seekingalpha.com/article/4145309-beware-inflation-trap – i share his skepticism on how the mainstream and financial press are describing events.  Too much click bait, too much over simplification and agendas are never exactly what they appear, e.g., wall… Read More »

Cynical View of Interest Rates

What is driving higher rates … Central Banks realizing that they have 0 tools left if things go bad fast – economic cycle turns Governments are running on debt that is so irrational that they only way they can sell their debt is to inflate the yield (lower price) This could be a train wreck… Read More »

Weekly Update, February 4, 2018

Sure feels like my view of interest rates, inflation and income investments was hazy at best after this last couple of weeks.  But my fundamental view remains that the US economy at least does not have the demographic, political or economic ability to accelerate sustainable growth to the levels people fear, >2%. BlackRock on Sustainable… Read More »

Weekly Update, January 28, 2018

Weekly Reads Lance Roberts with a solid risk warning https://seekingalpha.com/article/4140732-davos-warnings Here is a good quote for reference / relative perspective because sentiment (emotions) is probably the wildcard variable in most of our strategies:  “On a weekly basis, a correction back to the 52-week moving average would require a bit more than a -14% decline while a… Read More »

Uh Oh … consumer credit

If one holds that the consumer is the heartbeat of the US economy, UH OH https://seekingalpha.com/article/4139135-credit-card-delinquencies-surging  

Weekly Update, Jan 21, 2017

There seems to be a lull in the news, analysis and commentary on economy, market, etc … earnings will be in full bore next week and most eyes are focused on US Govt shutdown.  What could go wrong? Jeff Miller WTWA The S&P weekly view This an interesting reference – a summary of professional investor… Read More »

Must Read

MarketWatch published an interesting article but placed it in the “Opinion” section which struck me VERY odd https://www.marketwatch.com/story/only-1-sector-has-experienced-real-earnings-gains-in-the-past-12-months-2018-01-16 The article seems like only a data discussion on the delta between financial earnings and GAAP earnings … the mystery of legal financial engineering and its impact on perceived value of companies.  I found this VERY disturbing and… Read More »

Weekly Update, Jan 15, 2018

Set up this week – i am focused on interest rates more than equity risks / opportunities right now, so expect most of the posts to point to interest rate driven assets and not stocks Interesting reads this week i am not quite sure if this article is actionable, but one make an inference that… Read More »

Weekly Update, January 7, 2018

Brian Gilmartin posted an update on S&P earnings horizon https://seekingalpha.com/article/4135755-q4-17-earnings-upon-us-earnings-releases-will-packed-financial-info i took away an important point burried in the comments – while estimates keep going up and the experts are trying to discern tax reform impact … it may take awhile before there is clarity, and the most reliable news will be from the companies themselves… Read More »