Will solar energy push out now – COVID-19 consequence?

Will solar energy push out now – COVID-19 consequence?

From Seeking Alpha editors today, quote:

“Solar stocks (TAN -6.2%) are under notable pressure today, possibly due to disappointment over the U.S. stimulus bill which failed to contain any specific help for the renewable energy industry.

While solar companies can apply for loans just like any other business, the bill does not include the tax credit extensions and direct pay provisions sought by the industry. Solar names trade sharply lower: RUN -16.5%, SPWR -13.6%, JKS -13%, CSIQ -10%, ENPH -7.3%, VSLR -7.2%, SEDG -5.9%, FSLR -2.3%.

New reports from Morgan Stanley, Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy foresee sharp cutbacks for wind, solar and battery growth in the U.S. and beyond this year as cities impose lockdowns and economies stagnate. Rystad expects global growth of wind and solar will be wiped out this year as the dollar rises and other currencies fall amid the pandemic, driving up project costs. Morgan Stanley projects American residential solar volumes may plunge 48% Y/Y in Q2, followed by respective declines of 28% and 17% in Q3 and Q4. Wood Mackenzie trims its forecast for behind-the-meter batteries to be installed in the U.S. during 2020 by 31% to 436 MW from 632 MW previously, though the figure is still above the 272 MW installed last year.”

Post on FED’s bubble management

Post on FED’s bubble management

One of favorite writers put out a great post on the FED’s recent (COVID-19 required) actions to create another bubble to fix the bubble that just popped in the credit markets. Sounds like a comedy or a tragedy depending on your point of view. But Lance’s insights have helped me make and prevent losing money over the last couple of years. His inputs are worth the time to understand … I also echo the ‘pension problem’ issue and the recent decline in assets will make it bigger – but nobody is really talking about it yet.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334541-fed-trying-to-inflate-4th-bubble-to-fix-third

Quote from his conclusion: “The lynchpin in the U.S., remains demographics, and interest rates. As the aging population grows, they are becoming a net drag on “savings,” the dependency on the “social welfare net” will explode as employment and economic stability plummets, and the “pension problem” has yet to be realized. While the current surge in QE may indeed be successful in inflating another bubble, there is a limit to the ability to continue pulling forward future consumption to stimulate economic activity. In other words, there are only so many autos, houses, etc., which can be purchased within a given cycle.

There is evidence the cycle peak has already been reached.One thing is for certain, the Federal Reserve will never be able to raise rates, or reduce monetary policy ever again.

Welcome to the United States of Japan.” (lance’s italics)

W.A.T. Spring 2020 #1

W.A.T. Spring 2020 #1

W.A.T. = Walking around town

Clicking on the thumbnail opens the full photo – most are worth that click!

Spring showed up in the valley the last couple of weeks …

Mr Toad’s wild interest rate ride … wiplash!

Mr Toad’s wild interest rate ride … wiplash!

From the beginning of the year … just eye-popping … what do you do w/it to preserve your capital and maybe beat inflation?

I’m still working on that answer for my own portfolio – hardest times I’ve seen since 1985 when I started investing.

Dem candidates on climate

Dem candidates on climate

Grist put together a really good side-by-side of the two remaining plausible Dem candidates and their climate positions

Closing paragraph quote, “That idealism, which is easy to denigrate as naivete, may be Sanders’ biggest weakness heading into Sunday’s debate. Meanwhile, Biden’s biggest weakness is a different kind of idealism — the hope that technology and market-based solutions, without major changes to the fossil fuel industry, will be enough to confront the scale of the climate crisis. (Both candidates have called it an “existential crisis.”) In a speech Sanders gave on Wednesday about his decision to stay in the race, he said he plans to confront Biden about his energy and climate plans at Sunday’s debate and specifically press him on developing science-based targets. With no one else on stage to interrupt them, will the candidates dare push past their tried-and-true talking points and get more specific about what, exactly, they want to do to prevent catastrophic climate change, and how they plan to do it? We’ll have to tune in to find out.”

Jobs from rearview mirror

Jobs from rearview mirror

Report out this morning was very good if you can live in a rearview mirror. It obviously is not forward looking given the global virus impact … but to throw some salt in the current administration’s wounds

Without a blockbuster 2020, job growth will be annually lower than the Obama years …

Heisenberg gets all the credit https://heisenbergreport.com/2020/03/06/jobs-report-blows-through-expectations-but-market-likely-to-view-numbers-as-stale/

W.A.T. Winter 2020 #4

W.A.T. Winter 2020 #4

W.A.T. = walking around town – as always, click on the image to see the full pic. None of the below were touched up after downloading from camera.

The flowers are springing out (pun intended) … the birds are singing happier songs … not quite spring, but it’s so close

Soon the leaves will explode out with the remaining blooms and blossoms

A car even i could love …

A car even i could love …

It’s not fast; it does not have a huge range for battery … but

Quote: “The business plan, too, frames the Ami as a scooter replacement when it hits streets this June. You could buy it outright for $6,600, or you could lease it for $22 per month (with about $3,000 down), or rent it for 30 cents a minute with ride-share apps. The monthly lease is on par with current e-scooter subscriptions, though the minute-by-minute rate is about twice what the e-scooter company Bird is charging.”

https://www.fastcompany.com/90469594/this-tiny-electric-car-costs-just-22-a-month

Molly Tuttle’s 5 riffs

Molly Tuttle’s 5 riffs

She’s amazing to watch play the guitar … the guitar truly seems like an extension of her body and soul. Guitar Player has this series about the 5 riffs that changed your playing. Molly’s list is here

Clarence White, David Greer, David Rawlings and Joni Mitchell all are on the list. All of these I love to listen to …

I have been a long time fan of Clarence White’s playing both via Kentucky Colonels and the Byrds. David Greer, my once guitar teacher Eric Skye turned me on to Greer’s playing (I cannot even figure out how he gets that many tones from his guitars)! David Rawlings is one of my newer player loves that I can listen to all day long. — check this out. The soul Rawlings gets out of that old archtop floors me every time.

Molly fits within this group of players … as does Billy Strings. I love watching YouTube of these two playing together – mostly how they watch each other and get these huge smiles as the other crafts beautiful solos, for example …

Or for those non bluegrass lovers

Play on …

Indicator species – ‘canary in goldmine’ – not good enough

Indicator species – ‘canary in goldmine’ – not good enough

A new research report is out that concludes, quote: “By combing through a public dataset of over 1,000 species and 64 habitats in British Columbia, they were able to compare the surrogacy value of each species — a numerical score based on the association of two species through their use of shared habitats. They found that a mixture of five to 10 game and non-game species offered the best value as surrogates for biodiversity conservation.”

And a bit more, “We discovered what we called an ‘all-star’ team of species for each of the province’s nine wildlife management units, as well as an all-star team for the province as a whole,” says Sarah Falconer, graduate student at Laurentian University and study co-author. “Our findings suggest that if we commit to preserving these collections of species rather than just the charismatic megafauna, we’re likely to achieve much better conservation outcomes.”

This makes sense on so many fronts. I can easily think of a scenario where the change to an ecosystem would impact different species at different times and if the ‘canary’ was not one of the earliest impacted, the signal will be late … as well as the overall interdependence of the different species.