One of my always read authors posted a good balanced view on C-19 impact to economy and investing. Dale helped me a couple of years ago in taking solid positions in 10yr bonds that have proven out so far, e.g., MSFT, AAPL, BRK, KR, etc. The majority of voices at the time were calling a bottom on yields and putting fear into bonds … I took the plunge in part based on Dale’s analysis.
My portfolio strategy remains anchored in risk mitigation is foremost; don’t worry about ‘beating the market’ and resist any and all temptation to succumb to FOMO. My capital can remain very conservatively placed until I have confidence in investable value with commensurate risks. – Not much in it today, imho.
His closing is worth the full text, quote:
So yes, there’s hope
That said, even given the best possible miracle outcome and timing, it’s quite likely that economically, the damage will have already been done. And it will be a challenge for a rushed vaccine to change our already ingrained new normal behaviours. It may take a while for most of us to leave the fear at the door.
We have been asked to be too scared for too long, and that was for our own good. And mostly for the good and health of healthcare workers and the at-risk populations.
But I certainly hope that we begin that economic rebuild as quickly and safely as possible. To protect the health of workers, the vulnerable and the healthcare workers we will need to do this economic restart in very slow and measured fashion. If we step on the accelerator too hard the virus will take us into oncoming traffic.
We cannot afford a failed restart. This is the most dangerous economic experiment in human history.
Be safe. Be well. Be generous.
In summary I’d suggest we have a scared consumer, scared business owners, businesses that are going away; businesses that won’t be able to survive the new normal. There is that ceiling on how much we can fight back economically. All while the virus attempts to make things worse and more challenging at every stage.
There are many headwinds that will make a V-shaped recovery more than unlikely.