Tariff Scenarios

a good post from one of my favorite writers using tariff scenarios from Goldman https://seekingalpha.com/article/4155949-tillerson-kudlow-cpi-oh bottom line – no scenario is stock positive … oh my!

Weekly Update, March 11, 2018

Random Weekly Reads S&P earnings forecast from Brian Gilmartin … only major weakness is real estate.  the biggest surprise is that he is already looking to Q1 … went by too fast https://seekingalpha.com/article/4155309-q1-2018-earnings-start-month-estimates-changed A view of yield curve flattening – first major milestone reached.  i also watch the 30-2yr spread and it is not growing https://seekingalpha.com/article/4155338-truth-behind-quantitative-tightening-qt I… Read More »

Weekly Update, March 4, 2018

Random Weekly Reads A fairly simple technical view of stocks from Lance Roberts https://seekingalpha.com/article/4153046-bearish-action-emerges Have to agree on the selling pressure weighing on advances There’s that old ‘hate uncertainty’ and we have a huge dollop of that right now S&P earnings keep growing and estimates are not sliding post ER https://seekingalpha.com/article/4153035-big-dispersion-ytd-s-and-p-500-sector-returns-s-and-p-500-forward-estimate-continues-march (Brian Gilmartin) i think that one of… Read More »

Weekly Update, February 25, 2018

Weekend Reads https://seekingalpha.com/article/4150439-tax-receipts-weak …. seems contrary to common sense.  Read the comments underneath the article … just another data point / view on broad economic growth in US https://seekingalpha.com/article/4150414-v-v-shaped … buy the dip strategy and its potential unintended consequences – ever increasing dips Brad Thomas on LTC https://seekingalpha.com/article/4148178-monthly-dividend-payer-now-strong-buy I continue my ‘hold’ on LTC not because… Read More »

This should get more attention than it is

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-21/apple-is-said-to-negotiate-buying-cobalt-direct-from-miners  Apple is one of the best tech companies when it comes to supply chain risk mitigation … this should be considered a very important canary starting to sing a different tune.

Weekly Update, February 18, 2018

Random Weekly Reads – Economy Focused A new author for me posted this and it has echos of “Jubillee” as something in the future – where in the future, who knows  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4147943-worst-threat-face-right-home As with all these Jubilee related posts, i am not suggesting nor planning for this event (yet), but i find these articles incredibly important… Read More »

Portfolio Allocation and Rate of Return

I recently restructured my investment portfolio management schema (no actual sells / buys to redistribute) to better focus and track my different investment categories and the expected rates of return – as result of risk management. The four categories selected are working well (Cash, Capital Preservation, Income Growth, & Capital Growth); but, a simple method… Read More »

interesting data bite

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/industrial-output-edges-down-in-january-ending-streak-of-four-monthly-gains-2018-02-15 Capacity utilization edged down to 77.5% in January from 77.7 in the prior month. The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation’s factories, mines and utilities. It’s still well below pre-recession levels, above 80%, that could fan production costs and prices

Weekly Update, February 11, 2018

Weekly Reads Hoya Capital on REIT performance and valuation based on this week’s action https://seekingalpha.com/article/4145167-wild-week-upends-real-estate-markets Eric Parnell with a cautionary view of inflation https://seekingalpha.com/article/4145309-beware-inflation-trap – i share his skepticism on how the mainstream and financial press are describing events.  Too much click bait, too much over simplification and agendas are never exactly what they appear, e.g., wall… Read More »

Cynical View of Interest Rates

What is driving higher rates … Central Banks realizing that they have 0 tools left if things go bad fast – economic cycle turns Governments are running on debt that is so irrational that they only way they can sell their debt is to inflate the yield (lower price) This could be a train wreck… Read More »