Sunday Reads April 16

  • a good SA article  from Dr H on interest rates and USD … his view aligns with mine on the hard data not fully supporting increasing rates, as well as the unsupported view that FED has to increase rates somewhat else they have too few tools to battle any slowdown.  For me, it’s not perfect clear which way the balance is tipping and by how much, but i certainly cannot buy (and invest in) the thesis that rates are bound to climb steeply over near term.
  • State by state largest employer map … i saw a different version of this recently and it nearly took  my breath away – walmart.  i am not sure how this really influences local / state politics, but it has to somehow
  • The weekly S&P performance charts … struck by the greater than 1% decline on 20% less volume.  Seems the conceptual speculator could argue that the sell off was not enthusiastically executed and it will either continue down or bounce … i really dislike such speculation.
  • Great small comment in Jeff Miller’s Weighing the Week <copy> “Weekly jobless claims remained low at 234K. This half of the picture remains solid. We also need new hires.”  Not losing jobs = good/necessary, but creating jobs = sufficient.
  • Two interesting take-aways from this week’s blog from Brian Gilmartin http://fundamentalis.com/
    • Old technology is oversold going into earnings … this could be short term speculation opportunity
    • The comparison between S&P (and some specific companies) Q1 2017 and last year will be favorable due to lower 2016 performance (see the table)
  • A great batch of data from JP Morgan – i got lost here for about an hour and plan to revisthttps://am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/1383407651970/83456/MI-GTM_2Q17-Linked.pdf
    • the chart on slide 9 showing forward PE by sector is WAY cool – look at technology, health care and telecom
    • Slide 17 on correlations is also interesting
    • Slide 37 was a surprise showing US rates higher than all the others … how does that translate to destination in ‘flight to safety’?
  • Good perspective in this section Power of inflections that debunks a correlation between presidential hopefulness and market pricing … looking to fundamentals is way more important (another ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ data argument?)
  • <later add> a good perspective on interest rates with some good simple data – Blackrock

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