A bit short this week, as there’s too much going on beyond Wall St.
Recently, i bailed out of KR with a break-even trade, eventhough i was expecting to hold the company much longer, i just couldn’t see the intermediate success on either a company or dividend income basis … so i sold.
Take a look today (i sold north of $29) … https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KR
There was nothing here about marketing timing, or predicting AMZN purchase of WFM … just pure, dumb luck.
if one is regularly evaluates their portfolio and maintains valuation rationality across their asset classes and investments … a bursting bubble will hurt, but will it hurt more (short, intermediate and long term) than holding all cash for the next few years? Not sure
The paradox seems to be a ‘growth objective’ … we see it in corporate world, small businesses, etc. What if, no growth beyond desired employment levels was sufficient? What if there was another measure of success, e.g., health, security, peace, etc? Can not those be achieved w/out economic growth (covering employment needs of course)?
Lesson learned and patience lost wrt FPI. Yesterday’s news and stock repricing was too much for my patience tolerance. I sold off w/ a stop loss order at$9.30 (removed all emotion from the trade). Kept 30% of the position that was purchased below $10. A SA article yesterday maybe too dramatic, but i lost faith in management team … this reset was just too close to their reporting. Integrity lost. I will try to capitalize on a dead-cat bounce and get as close to neutral as possible and leave this company / REIT. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4079209-farmland-partners-sky-falling
I can typically stomach a pricing reset in companies that i respect, but when management does not play their role sufficient … confidence lost and money moved elsewhere.
Hoya Capital posted a summary view of a short list of healthcare REITs. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4079347-obamacare-uncertainty-remains-drag-healthcare-reits
i appreciated their differentiation of the REITs (and segments) vis-a-vis interest rates and current risk profiles. This article has me starting to evaluate my HCN position (i.e., in non-taxed account, a decent gain so far, consider selling to lock profit and take position in DOC). In healthcare REITs, i am long OHI, HCN and LTC. I consider LTC rock solid, OHI is the yield machine, and HCN was opportunity.
Everybody has an opinion. Good summary on economic indicators from Lawerence Fuller at SA https://seekingalpha.com/article/4078956-economy-continues-lose-momentum. The article is a good read, but less so if you do not read the comments.
My favorite read of the year and one that takes 3-5 times to catch the good stuff. I started reading her reports in 2010 and appreciate her narrative as well as her ability to simplify and connect a boat-load of important data. https://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/internet-trends-2017-report
The two things that struck me the 2nd time thru and that may modify some of my investment narratives: the convergence of mobile advertising, content and location driving more foot traffic to physical stores (retail) and not to digital stores; and the situation in India. For India, i think a timing issue based on when per capita income increases across more of population.
On Saturday, my wife and i went to our local DSW for a pair of treadmill shoes for her. 25% discount on selected Nike shoes. The store was more crowded than i was anticipating. Selection was decent in the Nike womens, and with teh 25% discount, prices were good. Most of the shoppers were women, and ranged across most age buckets (from observational point of view). The counter staff were friendly but the energy was low. The ‘behind’ the counter decorations were a bit cheezy with poor tape job holding them up. For me, it was a positive experience and helped confirm that DSW merits more attention. The one key element i need to fully understand is their digital strategy … the details of what, how and when. That element could make all the difference on the company value (quality of execution and their plan).
Two trends could collide in an ugly intersection. Read this article https://seekingalpha.com/article/4077867-stocks-need-fall-30-percent-one-bank-smoking-gun and then consider the trend of the declining leadership of USA. If, when, the US Treasury needs to sell more and more treasuries to cover the widening gap, will the same demand exist at prices the Treasury requires?
Both trends contain some speculation and inference (assuming a specific conclusion) … but surely makes me ponder on possible mitigations / contingencies.