Sunday Reads & Comments – July 8, 2017

This week may be a bit longer than normal after a week off and too much gnashing of teeth over reallocation decisions.

Top Watch Items for this up-coming week (possible entry points)

  • ETF – EMB
  • REIT – STAG   (this selection is biased toward my narrative, rather than absolute value entry point – target @ $25)
  • IOT – still up in the air between (T, CSCO and SWKS) … if i had to bet on it today, i would select both CSCO and SWKS
  • Health – PFE (my position is 2/3 complete), though from a delta to target pricing perspective, OMI is better priced (just not convinced yet of OMI business promise)
  • Consumer – TJX and TSCO (but read below)

Recent falling knife catching exercises – a mini post-mortem

  • TSCO has been one of my recent disasters.  I bought it all the way down, basically starting at $58/sh.  I thought a floor was established $51.50, but when the price declined to $51, i sold 50% (the most expensive shares) taking a 12% loss.  Commentary:  i recently made two mistakes (VOD and CAH) selling too soon, so i held TSCO longer than i really wanted to.  My initial stop was pegged at $52, and i did not pull trigger.  My take-away is to have a more formal 3-phase dashboard when prices are pushing on sell limits — and hold myself accountable to taking the prescribed actions (not ‘hoping for a bounce’)
    • Yellow Alert = <-2% loss
    • Orange Alert = <-5% loss
    • Red Alert = <-7% loss
    • Action can be taken at any alert level, but a sell must be triggered at Red alert.

Possible trimming and cash building

  • WTR above $32.50 and ideally >$33.00
  • NWN above $62.00
  • CTWS above $57.50

Jeff Miller’s Weekly Indicators

This is an interesting graphic … not sure the value other than “hmmm…”

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