Lawerence Fuller (no relation) often makes great summary statements around macro data. i find his weekly updates mandatory reading … in this installment, he made two things that caught me
- US job growth is bound to coastal areas with technology businesses
- US debt across all debtors is the key excess; which means as rates (if they do) increase materially, we will have fall ou
The geographic divergence of job growth, the types of jobs and their impact on other industries as Lawerence points out will be something to watch carefull and a position / observation to surely validate
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4101551-fed-completely-lost-control … i will forgo the cynical takeaway in this and focus on two more practical ones: first, the fed is gearing up for the next downturn; second, watching jobs created without workforce population growth is like watching only one end of a flow to predict the stock. Or, counting only births for population census (ignoring deaths).
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/08/this-time-really-is-different/ … fail and fail fast. learn from failing and learn from others. learn the history to learn and adapt faster to the present that is always changing … true for investing and many other areas
I had a funny feeling (gut check) that DSW earnings could not be worse than what Friday’s price reflected, so i took a small speculative position. This morning, I sold out the position at $19.00 after purchasing at $15.85 … a 19.8% gain in 3 days. Ok, i was a super chicken and did a very small amount to test out the Robinhood platform. But DSW is worth watching. My first experience w/ Robinhood was not overwhelmingly positive, but i will continue testing it out.
One of my favorite data focused caution-filled SA writers (Heisenberg) published what i think is a must read article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4099216-gmos-stark-warning-s-and-p-500-just-say-no
Here are the two key graphics for me … review them carefully
and then this one
A REIT commentator surfaced today that i had not seen before (probably just my miss due to information overload) … i thought this was a good quick review of the REIT landscapte https://seekingalpha.com/article/4097044-reits-foundation-become-increasingly-shaky
As with most commentators, one needs to critically review their insights and inferences … and look for opposing or at least differing opinions, e.g., Adam vs Brad from the Seeking Alpha crowd.
Where i ended up aligned w/ Adam: caution on OHI (maybe even reduce). Where i diverged: not FR, but STAG (from Brad), but the segment is compelling!
I read this … and i think a bit too much fear building, but cannot be simply ignored. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4092664-hot-potatoes-dutch-tulips
I have been leaning toward more and more cash based on my own analysis and convictions, and articles like this make it hard to remain balanced and objective. Rational logic anchored in consistent and reliable data is needed, not more emotion (fear or greed).