Weekly Update, September 1, 2017

By | September 4, 2017
  • i actually lost where this was referenced, but i thougth a ‘must read’  https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/there-they-go-again-again.pdf
    • the key take-away for me was 1) a revised look at ETF strategy and 2) a reminder on position trimming to a plan
    • i am looking at trimming HASI as it’s up >25% in nontaxed account (not trimming in taxable, yet)
  • ZBH has been a target watch company for several weeks.  A review in SA this week colored the picture with some more detail … especially on the management effectiveness and competitive landscape.  MDT is also on my watch list and JNJ is a core holding that i would build at right value entry.
    • For now, my focus will be on MDT and JNJ … update forthcoming
  • Jeff Miller’s Week Ahead – https://seekingalpha.com/article/4103791-weighing-week-ahead-time-ask-can-go-wrong
    • Weekly Indicators
      • Surprise with all the gyrations in US debt market this week, the 10yr landed right where it started for the week
  • Currency view of things this past week – US$ and US yields are becoming more interesting (not necessarily reliable or sensitive) indicators of potential capital flow redirection
    • Key question for me once risk is triggered, how do you follow the redirections sufficiently to NOT be damaged by them, and to collect some gains w/ acceptable risk?
  • Europe is looking better and better, but …. i once was inclined / leaning to ETF vehicles, but i am more convinced than ever one needs to pick specific companies https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2017/08/30/european-equity-bulls-need-to-be-selective
  • Value investing has been out of favor, or is it that the indexes and other benchmarks are so skewed due to FANG and FANG-like stocks … sooner or later, the reversion to the mean will happen … it has been hard as a value investor to stay true, but whimisical strategy changes are outside of my tolerance https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2017/08/30/value-dead-or-just-slumbering
  • Technology Sector continues on and future earnings forecasts promise more of the same … i think that one of the questions people are not asking strongly enough is the following … are these promises of increased revenue best characterized as:  a) organic demand growth, b) repurpose investment (e.g., people to robots), or c) market segment share conquests?  How you answer this changes the way to look at possible investments or trades http://fundamentalis.com/?p=7148
  • this is something that i had not seen … tracking CFO buys.  My experienced with CFO intelligence is way skewed towards the brilliance of Andy Bryant https://www.gurufocus.com/news/561253/weekly-cfo-buys-highlight-
  • this is a fairly outlandish quote; ok, not the quote, but the inference
    • The 10-year inflation-protected bond still yields you a measly 0.4%. A few years ago, I ran some numbers and said that the stock market does well until TIPs yield 2.4%. That shows you how much room we have. Of course, five years ago, 10-year TIPs were yielding -0.90%.
    • source:  http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/
  • i started playing with another portfolio / company analaysis tool … https://simplywall.st/
    • just getting started … more to follow later, but so far i love it and actually purchased a 1yr subscription after an hour of playing around
    • this is my second purchased tool, with the other being the pervasive FAST Graphs – https://www.fastgraphs.com

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