Weekly Update, Sept 17, 2017

After a week of psuedo vacation, i’m back in front of screens and devices in the week ahead.  I am embedding more graphics linked from other sources this week … pictures and stories go together … and i truly thank those linked here (i have tried to provide link-back to the original source)

  • this should get you thinking about major consumer brands and how their products are moated https://www.blackrockblog.com/2017/09/14/technology-transforming-economic
    • this has me re-thinking CLX and NWL (taxable portfolio holdings)
    • also re-poses the question around logistic plays, etc., warehouses (STAG), goods in transit monitoring (VZ), and cloud infrastructure (CIBR, QTS, MSFT)
  • this piece does nothing to make things clearer to me … i am left with an inference that if hedge activity picks up (bond demand increases, and prices increase/yields decline) … https://www.blackrockblog.com/2017/08/16/rates-not-moving/  
    • i am watching 10 yr treasury carefully, but am more interested in buying investment grade corps >3% and <8-10yr to call or maturity.  Here are some possibles
      • E M C Corp Mass – Call 03/01/23@ Greater of 100 or Make Whole – Make Whole Call Exp 03/2023
      • Zimmer Biomet Hldgs Inc – Call 01/01/25@ Greater of 100 or Make Whole – Make Whole Call Exp 01/2025 – Conditional Call
      • Kroger Co – Call 07/15/26@ Greater of 100 or Make Whole – Make Whole Call Exp 07/2026
      • Nordstrom Inc – Call 12/15/26@ Greater of 100 or Make Whole – Make Whole Call Exp 12/2026
  • Fundementalis has update on 3rd quarter projections by sector … http://fundamentalis.com/?p=7175
    • technology has room to disappoint imho
    • finance is sweet spot per Brian Gilmartin, and its hard to argue against that position unless your negative scenarios are major recession … and not ‘about flat’
  • not sure i fully agree with the thesis here, but the graphic view of these rates is interesting … gotta ask, “why / how is US rate so high relatively?” … also really like the point about global focus more than a myoptic domestic view of influencers.  http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/09/11/chart-o-the-day-one-big-bond-market/?curator=thereformedbroker&utm_source=thereformedbroker
  • MSFT … i love the company and the future of enterprise hybrid clouds; MSFT could make this easier than anybody else and they could make money throughout the sw and services stack if they play this well; but i have thought too expensive of a near-term entry above $70.  I will be re-assessing MSFT for Q3 reset.
    • http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/ — “Look for Microsoft (MSFT) to raise its dividend next week. The current quarterly payout is 39 cents per share. I’m expecting 42 cents, maybe 43 cents per share. In the last seven years, the software giant has tripled its dividend. Too many investors look past dividends. This is a mistake. Consider this stat: If MSFT goes to 43 cents, that means an investor who got the stock at the start of the bull market would be yielding 11.6% based on their purchase price. Not too bad. I’m keeping my Buy Below for Microsoft at $76 per share.”
  • this is interesting and provokes a couple of investigation tee-ups … both from environmental and company perspective
  • More on S&P risk and investors’ seeming complete disregard for it https://seekingalpha.com/article/4107487-winter-coming
  • Jeff Miller’s weekly indicator

    • look at the move on the 10yr T
    • notice that the ‘anticipated inflation’ also ticked up

This last week –

  • i took a couple of short positions mixing put purchases and straight short sells on:  DSW, BMY, and SPY … Put expirations were all in Dec ’17
  • sold off some profits in HASI in non-taxed portfolio (sold 1/6 of the position to lock profits to invest elsewhere … per above)

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