Weekly Update, Oct 8, 2017

  • A big walk around a host of indicators with opinions … much of this aligns with my thinking currently  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4112279-hated-bull-market-ever
  • Another week view from Doug Short and another week of steady incline … with a Friday rest period
  • Rail traffic seems to be in decline … source Steven Hansen (GEI) … i’d like to see this compared to truck traffic in US … if both are flat / declining, how can manufacturing and consumption be increasing?
  • Jeff Miller’s weekly indicators … not much of surprise that most indicators are materially flat except S&P 500 (for insight there, i recommend reading my first bullet from Lance Roberts
  • Brian Gilmartin shared this from Bespoke … the overbought condition is a given, what happens next is the mystery and i continue to hedge on preparing for the downside eventually … taking profits, taking way defensive positions (bonds and preferreds) when i can find bargains for the income stream i require (e.g., >3.7% on 10yr investment grade corporates and >5% on investment grade preferreds).
  • Trying to quantify the potential S&P benefits of the tax reform proposal … if GS analysis is close to accurate, from an S&P perspective there is not much to get excited about in the best scenario.  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4112249-heisenbergs-ice-cream-shop-much-s-and-p-upside-tax-reform
    • Comment:  there seems to be a huge valuation bet that exceeds the best possible outcome … disappointment will be harder to measure / quantify
  • A new author for me … while this article seems focused on the investment opportunity of the container shippers, i found the recent demand picture very interesting and hard to balance with the declining train freight in US — unless the container demand growth is really going somewhere else  — who are buying?  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4112037-container-shipping-demand-making-splash
  • Here is a great article on interest rates / FOMC … but you have to read the comments to … there’s a great “what if” around if low rates are not the product of FED but inspite of the FED working so hard to keep rates from going lower … not sure i agree, but an interesting take https://seekingalpha.com/article/4112165-fomcs-missing-inflation-mystery-part-2

Actions this week

  • Liquidated TJX position with small gain
  • Initiated small position in ILP-D (preferred)

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