Weekly Update, Nov 12, 2017

By | November 12, 2017

This may be the week we look back and say ‘the bull started to tire here’ … there was a great point made by somebody on a comment area to a Seeking Alpha post … buying the dip and catching falling knives are going to get much more complicated and there will be many people with bloody hands.  i agree and introduced a new mataphor – no more knives, i will be looking to catching balloons after the knives fall all the way and stick into the ground.  Missing the absolute bottoms is not a concern at this phase … watch for baloons

Some highlights from Jeff Miller’s WTWA

  • Weekly S&P snapshot
  • This was an interesting data set … the inferences are difficult to make but one favorite opinion is that middle class folks can no longer afford investing and more and more capital is concentrated (i prefer this); but others are using it as a retort to bull market insanity (i cannot buy this fully)
  • I love this analysis of labor market and i find it skewed to the younger side of the employee base.  this same data (i believe) would look very differently by age groups (<40 and >45)
  • Weekly indicators … look at the 10 yr; higher at same time anticipated inflation is lower … key question is are rates a blip up and opportunity for bond purchases or is this a directional confirmation (higher rates)

Other sources and thoughts

My Actions

  • I filled my position in PEGI across all accounts.  The earnings conference call was compelling to me and especially their strategy and emerging success in Japan.
  • I closed my open trading position in IOTS after earnings report for a decent profit.  I really like this company and will buy more as the price stabilizes … a very small company with a growing design win pipeline in the IOT low power memory segment.  This is another piece of my IOT narrative for which i am thinking of an EOY post on all the components and associated investments.
  • The week ahead will be fully focused on GE and their strategy update

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *