Weekly Update, January 7, 2018

Weekly Update, January 7, 2018

  • Brian Gilmartin posted an update on S&P earnings horizon https://seekingalpha.com/article/4135755-q4-17-earnings-upon-us-earnings-releases-will-packed-financial-info
    • i took away an important point burried in the comments – while estimates keep going up and the experts are trying to discern tax reform impact … it may take awhile before there is clarity, and the most reliable news will be from the companies themselves when they report
    • also appreciated Brian’s point about Morningstar and their valuation work taking on longer duration values than quarter to quarter
  • Jeff Miller’s always valuable WTWA
    • Doug Short’s team’s view of the week.  if this does not make you scratch your head and wonder a bit … is the same drivving force in play here as in Bitcoin?
    • As would be expected, much discussion of the jobs data … it’s confusing and for some reason i cannot figure out it allows for multiple interpretations of the same data … the inflation question / answer is why everybody is laser focused on jobs …. there are some very smart and strong voices on both sides of the argument
    • Weekly scorecard – look at the 10yr note and the anticipated inflation numbers – interesting that the QtoQ delta is the same for both measures
    • In closing comments, Jeff added a great reminder:
      • The biggest mistakes people make about inflation are assuming it occurs without any accompanying economic changes, expecting this to be the only Fed focus, and using their personal experience to opine about overall levels.
  • Lance Roberts has surfaced as the writer most aligned with my thinking and i appreciate his in depth data analysis … https://seekingalpha.com/article/4135756-exuberance-marks-start-2018
    • i am nervous
    • i am placing stop-loss orders on anything i will not keep (meaning i have 30%+ profit and it pays >3.5% dividend with >5% dividend growth expectations
    • i am watching 10year treasury ETFs
    • I am watching investment grade corporates within 15 years
    • I am struggling to respond to REIT downslides – especially LTC
      • came to conclusion that i will not sell now (will allow a 5-7% decline of value) and will DRIP it but not add new capital
      • HCN will be target for new capital
      • OHI is an exit
  • I agree w/ this article from Blackrock https://www.blackrockblog.com/2018/01/04/continued-calm-stocks/ 
    • In fact, i am so keyed into to rate spreads, that i am tracking opening, closing and spreads on 2, 10 and 30 year rates (it laborious, but it forces me to pay attention to rate changes)
  • Crossing Wall St posted a bit on consumer stable stocks … CHD is an interesting one epecially if it tumbles with some of the macro walls fall … i am going to add it to my list (i like it better than PG) http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/
  • One topic that i have not gotten my head fully around (and given my background, one would think it would be easier than it has proven to be) – INTC and the security issues (or lack thereof)
    • this is a big deal for INTC and even in some ‘best case’ scenarios it will make selling data center / cloud CPUs harder – there are scenarios that also point to lower MSS and / or margins over the near term
    • when Linus chimes in publically it’s time to pay attention … there are few people who understand kernel science as well as he and his army does
    • i will be looking at least to hedge my INCT position and possibly trim it by 50%
  • Canada Weed stocks took a brief rest as a result of Sessions tirade this last week
    • TWMJF – i still hold a small position but sold 1/2 of the position via stop loss – (cost basis around $14)
    • APHQF – i still hold a position but sold 1/2 of that position via stop loss – i am still up over 100% (cost basis around $6)
    • Both of these positions are pure speculation and a play on Canada market and international but NOT US … too soon i think for that but am starting to think about a ‘picks / shovel’ play

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