Data Devil Delights from JP Morgan

JPM quarterly update (link from Jeff Miller WTWA) – great big dollop of data for those who love poking thru a data trove.

What i found interesting

After looking at this set of data, a hypothesis surfaced as both residential and motor vechicle levels above are below recent cycle highs – is this part of a structural change in consumption that favors ‘services and experiences’ over objects (physical assets like houses and cars)? – if that is feasible / plausible, then monitoring the rate of change in physical asset investment may be less of a leading indicator than it once was … an updated leading indicator approach would focus on service consumption rate of change.
The far right of this graph shows the commonly discussed point that the Fed and the market see different trends in rates … do you trust the fed’s crystal ball and abilities, or the smart money gang that was so accurate earlier in this century?
Another commonly discussed data set – debt quality and levels of debt vs GDP – the left panel is quite interesting -seems households learned their lessons last time around nad have actually decreased their debt; but corps and government are above the last cycle peak – especially governments. Begs the question of how much of this recent growth cycle is debt funded and the price yet to be paid.
One of my emerging investment research projects places India as a core driver – the top right chart supports the potential of that research. I expect to have an update by end of Q2.

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