Mr Duy on Powell’s position – June 2019

that’s a pretty good way to phrase it … the full article is good read, and the last paragraphs make it simple – quote (bold is Mr Duy’s):

Yes, there is some commentary that this July cut is conditional on trade talks or data. I don’t think so; it would take some spectacular data to call the July cut into question. Powell and his colleagues knew exactly how the market would react to this meeting and did nothing to push back against that reaction. It would be exceedingly difficult to pull back on a rate cut now.

Nor is there any reason to. Yes, financial stability concerns linger in the background. I think though the Fed will weigh more heavily meeting its employment and inflation mandates. The persistently low inflation leaves them room to ease and protect against downside risks to employment. It important to lean against those risks given the proximity to the zero lower bound. It is also important to lean against those risks because you don’t want to go into a recession with low inflation.

Bottom Line: The Fed greenlit a July rate cut. The dots suggest more will follow, with a minimum of 50bp on the way. While I think July is pretty much locked in, future cuts are of course data dependent

One Reply to “Mr Duy on Powell’s position – June 2019”

  1. Another author published a good take on Powell and company’s work yesterday; this is a great perspective for portfolio managers to keep in mind … here was my comment to Eric P: “Eric – so glad to see you resisting the Kool-Aid – thank you! sometime soon, the ever increasing economic inequality will increase social instability and as a long term investor, there is little as risky. The FED evolving mandate of asset values for the 1% is truly gasoline in that sense. portfolio managers who take risk widely and seriously, are going to have to start increasing social stability in their risk calculus – impact and probability (seems probability keeps increasing magnifying that risk).”

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