Scenario planning across many domains works for me – thanks to my early study of Shell’s work. I think thru the different scenarios and try to weed thru Plausible, Probable and Unlikely. From that, plans and contingencies and mitigations are created.
Portfolio managers in today’s environments can easily be overwhelmed with the different scenarios birthed by the seemingly irrational events surfacing around the world.
However, that does not mean you can dismiss them without considering the scenario plausible or probable. This scenario posted today is plausible – tho it bothers me greatly.
Thanks to Heisenberg report for diligently working through this over the last few weeks … it’s not crazy, but it’s scary. How do we plan for it is the key question.