Recession talk disappeared with the holidays and new year and the geopolitical crazies … and the interest rate inversion corrected. Nothing to worry about, right?
Based on my experience in corporate world, good CFOs have a pretty accurate pulse on revenue growth (and costs required for that growth). I am not positioning this as a ‘be-all’ insight into 2020, but for me, a data point that weighs a bit heavier than predictions from talking head type pundits.
More than half (52%) of U.S. CFOs believe the U.S. will be in an economic recession by the end of 2020, and 76% predict a recession by mid-2021.
“Business leaders continue to expect an economic slowdown in the U.S. before or concurrent with the presidential election,” said John Graham, a finance professor at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and director of the survey. “I’d expect uncertainty about the election itself to cause firms to slow expansion in the summer and fall of 2020.”
Seventy-nine percent of CFOs in Asia believe their countries will be in recession by the fourth quarter of 2020, as do the majority of CFOs in Africa (77%), Canada (67%) and Latin America (55%). Forty-nine percent of CFOs in Europe expect a recession by the end of 2020.