Can't manage what you can't measure

Climate Models Are Running Red Hot, and Scientists Don’t Know Why

Quote: “Climate models tend to use a pretty stable range of assumptions about future emissions. Hausfather and Peters’s commentary is about which ones best describe the real-world trend. A much bigger question is the ongoing impact of changes caused by warming itself: permafrost melt, wildfires, changes to cloud cover, the release of frozen deep-sea methane. Update the science about how these feedbacks will interact and further accelerate warming, and headaches really start.

Recent updates to several climate models have been turning up surprising—and scary—new results. Models that previously agreed more or less with a 3°C long-term outlook have started putting out climate-sensitivity results higher than 5°C. It’s an emerging worst-case scenario that scientists are still unpacking.

Any way you slice it, these models are important to help guide us to some better outcome


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