Early on the C-19 days, even before US had acted, I predicted that senior housing and the companies that provide those services were going to be challenged in the longer term. The business model future was questioned in my mind. Hence, I sold all my shares in REITs holding those properties, e.g., WELL and LTC. (disclosure, I did NOT sell at the top and ignored my intuition; i sold later at profit, but with less than possible).
Some data on C-19 deaths and ‘where’ they occurred supports the thesis that this business model will be challenged moving forward. Will folks stop using long term senior care facilities … NO! Will people use them less or consider more options (opening up new business models) before signing that lease / agreement, YES!
The business model will be challenged, but the how, when and who remains open. That level of ‘unknown’ is just beyond my portfolio risk tolerance given all else going on … Eventhough, the LTC management is absolutely top-notch, and under most circumstances I would take the risk w/ them … but C-19 is different.