IEA baseline projections update – wind & solar capacity to outsize coal & gas by 2024

In a new report, IEA updated it’s projections so that the baseline assumption scenario increases solar and wind capacity above the combination of gas and coal. Here’s Carbon Brief’s post on the report.

Quote, “Last year, Carbon Brief analysis of the IEA’s data found that it only expected renewables to overtake coal output over the next five years under its more optimistic “accelerated case” scenario. However, this year – even in its less ambitious “main case” scenario – wind, solar, hydro and biomass are projected to take the lead within the next five years.”

Electricity demand increases and renewable energy generation growth between 2019-2025

The post points out the associated risks to this outcome as well, quote: “While the renewables sector has done relatively well this year, the expiration of existing incentives and resulting uncertainties mean that the IEA expects a small decline in the rate of capacity additions in 2022, compared to 2021, unless policies are changed. The key policies coming to an end are China’s offshore wind and solar subsidies, as well as the solar and onshore wind production tax credits in the US. “Renewables are resilient to the Covid crisis but not to policy uncertainties,” says Birol.”

This is all good news! The typical caveat is that our own behaviors and those of our governments are all that stand in the way of a cleaner future …

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