GLW – a quick review

Disclaimer: Not recommendation just an observation and opinion

GLW surfaced as an up-coming X-div stock with a solid history of paying / increasing dividends and also fits into the 5G infrastructure narrative as the demand for fiber should increase with the build out.

I took a look thru my favorite first view lens, … but at current prices it is just too expensive – somewhere <$25 would be more interesting. – NO FURTHER Reasearch but will add to my ‘sort of watch’ list.

From technical view (Investing.com)

From a fundamental view

FinBox.io DCF analysis is neutral imho

Simply Wall St DCF analysis is positive

Fast Graphs shows the expensive stock price based on forecasts (which have not been that accurate)

Tip Ranks overall score is neutral

RY Earnings Conf Call

Disclaimer: Not advice or recommenation, just observation and opinion

This was milktoast https://seekingalpha.com/article/4266134-royal-bank-canada-ry-ceo-dave-mckay-q2-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript

While I am long RY and consider it w/ BMO and BNS part of my core income-based equity holdings, this conference call was a waste of time for those who participated imho. A common practice of walking thru the financial performance slide deck with analsysts asking clarifying questions so they can adjust their predictive models.

Without the dividend and the conservative Canadian regulations, I would move my capital elsewhere. I prefer to hear strategy updates, risk clarifications with mitigations and analysts challenging the strategy.

Global Synchronicity

What if … the current market ills across the globe have less to do w/ trade wars and more to do w/ growth issues (insufficient demand for way too much supply – trade wars are symptom, not root cause)? While both occur in breadth / depth not well predicted, everything happens at once like that devil we danced with back at the crossroads has come to claim their payment.

Read this post and get your head around central banks all around the globe working to keep growth a viable prediction. (Credits to Heisenberg Report for putting this together)

Carbon Capture – Not sufficiently talked about

I found this article a bit ago and it struck me pretty hard. I hear people often talking about carbon reduction through their advocacy and daily activities. But according to this author, reducing carbon output is necessary, but not sufficient. We need to figure out how to capture carbon out of the atmosphere and remove it, destroy it, or turn it into something benign. Nobody is really talking like this – is this a bridge too far or does this need to be included in any climate change discussion?

https://www.salon.com/2018/10/20/carbon-capture-what-we-do-not-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-climate-change_partner/

Plastic – oh my!

Infographic: Plastic Recycling Still Has A Long Way To Go   | Statista

Thanks to the great folks at Statista for the data … this only goes back to 2015, and I imagine that the growth since then is above linear. their story is equally as good https://www.statista.com/chart/18064/plastic-waste-in-the-us-municipal-solid-waste-disposal/ … what the blazes are YOU doing about it? Reducing your plastic usage, reusing the plastic you have …

Things to keep in mind when you cruse thru your favorite store:

  • Can i buy it without single use plastic?
  • Can i reuse that plastic if i buy it?
  • What are alternatives to plastic that i can use, buy, and share?

Mary’s First Big Deal?

Mary Meeker is a long time fixture in my investment readings – as well as standard business strategy. Her approach is no longer novel but her insights are typically worth every ounce of energy spent understanding them …

In her new gig as an investor rather than an analyst, she’s made her first big bet https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-20/mary-meeker-s-new-fund-chooses-australian-startup-for-debut-deal

Having used Canva and worked with creative types who love it … hard to argue against the idea at this point. Go Mary Go!

Q1 2019 Earnings Conf Call #4 – ACB

Disclaimer: Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold … just observations.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4264473-aurora-cannabis-inc-acb-ceo-terry-booth-q3-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript

ACB is different. First, I own very, very little (100sh) so I do not have much skin in this game. I thought the conf call telling on a couple of points: a) medical, b) beverages not a bar scene, and c) production ownership. I think they are the most interesting of the big canada weed companies, and will look to add to my position but <$8.00 somewhere on a weed cycle downer day. The company has a clear vision and strategy; what will be telling is if the demand shows up as expected (or more).

Bluetooth security risks

A recent post pushed me over to a Wired article on Bluetooth standard complexity. I can relate to this even ~5 years ago when I was working in the automotive software domain. This is something to pay attention to until a new protocol takes over the ‘easy to use, easy to develop’ securily.

https://www.wired.com/story/bluetooth-complex-security-risk/

There will be money made here by somebody who can figure out how to help developers create secure connections without decreasing end user convenience. This is less of my interest in the near term (I am prioritizing 5G infrastructure and M2M interactions) – but the security in BLE especially is important.

Mr Duy on the Fed 5-15-19

Bottom Line: The Fed will retain its “patient” policy stance until the tone of the data shifts meaningfully relative to their forecast. That hasn’t happened yet. My bet is that when the shift happens, it is more likely to support a rate cut than a hike.

Funding Machine Learning

Found an interesting infographic from Statista on where machine learning funding dollars have been funneled up to March 2019. If one thinks about the process required for successful machine learning, this makes sense. The one surprise was how far down language usage models were – this implies to me that the early investment dollars (so far) are really focusing on infrastructure / plumbing / platforms and machine to machine (or machine to itself) – and not usage models w/ human interaction.

https://www.statista.com/chart/17966/worldwide-artificial-intelligence-funding/

Infographic: Machine Learning Tops AI Dollars | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

VZ offers NB IOT network

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17511427-verizon-extends-iot-leadership-position-launching-narrowband-iot-network-nationwide-offering

This is just a beginning. One cool part of the announcement is the inclusion both IP and non-IP traffic, and even more so specific use cases. Quote:

  • Smart cities – improve citizen experience and municipal operations through parking sensors, waste management and smart lighting.
  • Smart buildings – enhance building safety and incident response times through connected smoke detectors including regular auto-test, battery check and real-time alerts to the relevant parties in case of fire.
  • Industrial – improved machinery maintenance cycles and factory safety through machinery control such as equipment status, factory control, and process and safety monitoring.
  • Environment monitoring – increase focus on environmental responsibility through status reporting of manhole covers, fire hydrants and chemical emission levels.
  • Agricultural – improve efficiency in the agricultural industry with livestock tracker, connected greenhouse, stationary tracking and monitoring of air quality, humidity, moisture, temperature, and weather conditions of air and soil.
  • Asset Tracking – improve efficiency and decrease costs by using pallet tracking and geo-fencing.
  • Utilities – improve efficiency and decrease waste by using gas and water metering, including smart meter consumption tracking and pipeline monitoring.

The more of these announcements, use cases and developer kits the more device innovation will take off!

A view of the 5G Economy – but a bit old (2017)

I stumbled on an article from 2017 on 5G economy. I poked thru looking for insights into 5G value chain decomposition to help sequence up-coming investments.
https://cdn.ihs.com/www/pdf/IHS-Technology-5G-Economic-Impact-Study.pdf

I have already started a country (or region) coverage strategy focusing on US, China, UK and Canada. I was going to add another country and was looking at S. Korea, but this data suggests Japan the better target.

IHS did a great job then with use cases and specific industry impacts.

I am working on a value-chain guide to investment placements and timing, but will be a few weeks before ready. Key take-away from this IHS report is two-fold: a) pay attention to Japan and b) view opportunities with an industry overlay (like above table).

Auto Carbon Footprint

I had not seen something like this before and found it pretty interesting – it’s mostly from a CO2 perspective and not detailed on heavy metals – another environmental cost to consider.

It’s hard to argue against more and more EV autos … but especially here in US – will people buy them without incentive with higher cost than combustion models?

This is worth poking at if you are interested in buying car

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4262238-little-known-truth-carbon-footprint-tesla-model-3-bevs