Industrial Output – not much attention

The Industrial Output report was published this morning and not much was said about it … my thought is that the GM strike and impact muted folks’ interest. I found it a bit alarming, even if you discount GM impact https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/default.htm

Yes, i know services are more important than manufacturing, but where does the money come from to pay for the services? Tourists? Seems rather parasitic if all the money made in services originated in services, right?

I’m keeping my eye on manufacturing and industrial production regardless of what the talking heads spew …

Healthcare REITs from Hoya Capital

This was a pretty good post on Healthcare REITs, though my perspective is similar to Hoya’s (preference on lower risk segments) creates a bit of echo chamber here.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4296372-healthcare-reits-rehab

DOC and WELL are each ~2% of my actively traded portfolio within the income growth segment. LTC is a much, much smaller allocation mostly because their management team is excellent, but the SNF is a tough business and to be mostly avoided. I am not expecting continued stock price appreciation and have recently trimmed my DOC position, but all 3 will remain in portfolio unless business changes materially.

5G End to End early tests

NOK reported out today some preliminary end to end test results from Indonesia https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17660863-nokia-hutchison-3-complete-first-5g-end-end-live-network-trial-indonesia

This is interesting data and will be good to watch over time as independent 3rd parties and more extensive testing gets rolling in different countries / different networks.

QUOTE: “Multiple tests were conducted on the 28 GHz spectrum, obtaining the highest data download speeds of up to 1.62 Gbps with 11ms latency while upload speeds of 75.9 Mbps were measured. The trial also included a voice call test, which was initiated on the 5G trial network and realized over VoLTE (voice over existing LTE network) to demonstrate how basic telephony services would be handled in 5G. “

Trade or Product? – answer impacts strategy

Heisenberg posted a quick one this morning on China autos … i verged off a bit on this snippet: “America’s loss in terms of Chinese market share is Germany and Japan’s gain. “As GM and Ford’s China sales extend declines, US car companies’ share of total China passenger vehicles sales fell to 9.5% in the first eight months of this year from 10.7% in the year-ago period”, Reuters wrote this week. “Over the same period, German car makers’ share has risen to 23.8% from 21.6% and Japanese auto makers’ to 21.7% from 18.3%”.

Ok, so is this decline from all the trade noise (US / China), or something far more problematic … is this that US autos are not hitting the market w/ the right products? If I was either an auto exec or investor (i am neither, tho i do find BYD interesting for their battery possibilities), I would surely want to know the answer to that question and adjust my strategic planning accordingly.

Heisenberg’s post https://heisenbergreport.com/2019/10/12/15-out-of-16-chinas-worst-ever-car-market-slump-deepens/

Mr Toad’s wild interest rate ride

so many variables marching around driving these vectors: China, Turkey, UK, QE-lite (or not), US debt, and that does not even start with economic cycle influences. My guess, the ride is not over yet and selective fixed rate purchase opportunities will surface from time to time – but i am running out of patience on the short (3 month) – (depending on your objectives of course) – i am watching the 2-5year zone and influences.

Windows 7 is good enough for voting machines, really?

This is just crazy or stupid. I would advocate that even small business should be getting off Windows 7 as fast as possible. But it is good enough for US voting machines (a huge impact attack surface that we know is already week – voting machines), really? This just does not make sense and demonstrates incredibly poor planning for one of the most important activities in our democracy – voting.

Words chosen matter

Over the last couple of days, financial news headlines from mainline sources, especially Marketwatch, CNBC, and their peers, have chosen headlines that I see with strong bias toward painting events more negative, more bearish – interest rates and economic data.

An example from today was the jobless numbers this morning. The data was below the aggregate estimate, but MarketWatch headline was: “Jobless claims inch up in mid-september” … a true statement, but the probable audience reaction for the headline tilts negative, rather than “the number was better than anticipated” which would have been more positive.

My point here is not to highlight an incorrect bias, but that we as readers have to carefully respond and look at the data ourselves – not just the headlines. They are deliberately chosen for a narrative by that source and their motivation will always be to sell more content – not really help us make better investment decisions.

I worked with a brillant strategy person not long ago – truly brillant – and in a meeting this phrase was spoken with everlasting impact: “You have failed to realize the power of the English language”. Words chosen by news outlets have a purpose and it just may not be the same as ours.

Greenpeace @ Dakar

Greenpeace was in Dakar recently and posted as they were exiting. A couple of items.

First, the preservation of the ocean around Dakar and neighbors is essential to the survival of almost everybody who lives in West Africa north of Liberia. From my experience there, without a plentiful fish harvest by local fishing, food will need to be either imported or provided by way more environmentally damaging proteins.

Second, one of their pics was just totally Dakar

Link to Greenpeace Africa https://www.greenpeace.org/africa/en/

Bank card delinquency month to month – not so good

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3499752-august-credit-card-delinquency-charge-rates

That link will take you to an interactive table (see below pic). I just scanned June to August and all are higher except BAC. Not a good sign of healthy consumer that everybody seems to be postulating. This is a new data set for me, so I cannot pose materiality or significance to the month to month increases, but surely is something to watch.