Point – risks continue to grow globally across mutliple asset types. there are short term plays but they contain complex variables and winning hands are beyond average investors (myself included). i am comfortable with my recent moves taking more and more capital out of equities and placing in short-term treasuries (<6 months). Might i miss out another 5% of S&P upward melt? sure … but as somebody posted last week (can’t remember who): i want a return OF my capital, not just a return ON my capital.
Reminder: i’m semi-retired with short runway to acquire additional capital
I woke up early this morning and reviewed overnight market results and became momentarily optimistic … maybe all this trade tension has released, and we can go back to normal investing / trading.
Alas … that’s how daily news distorts things and invites us to relase our well thought out strategies. I am often reminded of something smart people taught me long ago: a single or couple of data points do not make a trend. Plans and strategies are based on a set of clues (trends) not single data points.
Here is the key single data point that i found burried in https://barchart.com daily update: “China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a 2-week high on signs that state-sponsored funds entered the market and bought blue chip stocks.” – that diffused some of my news based optimism earlier.
My bearish move money to Treasuries and wait for better value entry points (in US and Asia) remains intact.
Segment profit pools and differentiation are the critical elements here from an investment analysis perspective. I will be using this in my portfolio 2.0 (or 2025 Portfolio) exercise targeting first on two segments: Global telecom (Canada and India) and IOT low-power connectivity solutions. These are both foundational elements in my 2025 Portfolio.
A subsequent post in October will build out the other elements in 2025 Portfolio, and how that construct will be used.
“Meanwhile, the threat that tariffs will eventually push up consumer prices in the U.S. only adds to the case for preemptive rate hikes. Goldman’s Jan Hatizius released a note this week that carried the title: “More growth, more tariffs, more hikes”. Whether or not the Fed will reach the end of the road in terms of their capacity to raise rates sometime in 2019 is the subject of vociferous debate and I won’t broach that subject here. For our purposes, the point is simply that piling stimulus atop a late-cycle dynamic forces the Fed into hawkishness.
That’s dangerous because it has the potential to create a false sense of confidence among, for instance, small-business owners, who may not appreciate the finer points of what’s going on. On Tuesday, the NFIB said small-business confidence (as measured by their optimism index) hit the highest level in its 45-year history in August.”
this is a well measured take on recent earnings growth projections and historical comparisons of PE expansion / contraction. The industry growth changes since July 1 are important i think. The two areas i will be diving into: Teleco and Utilities (sustainable) to look for additional solid dividend payers with dividend growth at good price (entry point).
This both fits the current target narratives (IOT and 5G) … VOD was added this past month, and the Canadian telecos (especially RCI and TU) are being watched carefully.
Birds are incredibly difficult for me to capture a good picture. For every 1 good one, there are 3-5 bad ones. Here are some of my better ones spanning Spring and Summer 2018 – most were taken in Eugene, OR, but a couple came from Napa, CA.
Blue Herons (they do stand still)
Small birds that sometimes sing
Some of the best hunters in the world – the Osprey pics are not as good as desired, but worth it nonetheless.
PS – a couple of these pictures were edited after the fact – just background color edits to bring out the bird a bit from background. All pictures taken w/ Nikon CoolPix B700
The other day while sitting inside hiding from intense heat, my wife called out that there was another squirrel in the cherry tree in our backyard. Blasted squirrels, I thought … headed to the door and looked at the movement in the tree, and it was NOT a squirrel.
Two baby owls had parked themselves in our tree which is on the other side of our deck. These pictures were taken from inside thru the glass door.
Then the other day, I was hiking up in Sisters Wilderness, and i was ready to take a picture of this very beautiful wildflower, and I was surprised by a visitor
PS – none of the photos were altered; they are posted as they came from my Nikon Coolpix B700
A recent post really hit the nail on the head in describing a future scenario where the overwhelming quantity of data and information will require well-educated people to analyze, interpret and make plans (knowledge). It is easy, I think, to infer that those markets (geographies, countries, cities, etc) that are heavily investing into education, training and innovation around mathematics, science and computer science will be the economic, innovation and thought leaders of the future.
Sadly, most of us in the USA watch as our education programs wither from underfunding and especially the under appreciation of teaching as a serious, high-paying profession.
Now … I find the ‘corporate profit orientation’ above that of the customer. Would not a retailer want to provide convenient and customer choice modes of payment? I get it the op costs could be higher with different vendors, but would you rather have happy, loyal customers?