FCC rules on 5G RF

Here is the SA post with a reference to WSJ – but you need a subscription, and I do not have one. So … here’s the FCC document

Here’s the quote from SA, quote:

“5G doesn’t pose new cellphone radiation threats, according to the FCC, which spent six years reviewing the issue and receiving public feedback. The regulator voted unanimously this week to keep in place standards for how much exposure to the radio-frequency energy cellphones and antennas emit is safe. The rules cover consumer devices, and the 5G infrastructure used on cell towers and rooftops, as the four major U.S. wireless carriers race to roll out the next-generation of wireless networks.”

Here’s an interesting quote from the FCC report – in the opening summary statements, quote (my bold):

“Specifically, we propose to formalize a an additional limit for localized RF exposure and the associated methodology for compliance for portable devices operating at high frequencies (gigahertz (GHz) frequencies). on top of our already existing limits that apply at these frequencies, and propose to extend this to terahertz (THz) frequencies as well. We also propose to allow wireless power transfer (WPT) equipment under Part 15 and 18 of the Commission’s rules and propose specific exposure limits for such operations. “

Jobs day – read BLS

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

While one can hardly find fault in the job numbers released today, it’s important to read the report rather than listen to everybody’s spin …

Here’s my caution, quote: “Manufacturing employment rose by 54,000 in November, following a decline of 43,000 in the prior month. Within manufacturing, employment in motor vehicles and parts was up by 41,000 in November, reflecting the return of workers who were on strike in October. “

Roughly 40,000 of that BIG number were people coming back to work after strikes. Still a good report and will push yields and equity up. Enjoy the ride

5G usage models not yet defined

A SA post this morning, echoed my pespective that the 5G usage models are evolving and as they do will really influence the infrastructure build out, capabilities, products and services (and the resulting profitable companies). This corresponds to later phase 2 and phase 3 in my 5G narrative. Here is the key quote for me (my bold):

The reality is there will not be a dominant model of edge computing in the early stages of 5G network rollout. Right now, we have separate models for implementing 5G networks, most of which are layered over the top of existing 4G LTE systems. True, stand-alone 5G will not begin to be implemented widely until 2020, and even then they must remain interoperable with 4G networks for the foreseeable future due to the amount of investment and dependencies built upon those existing network models.

Some use cases for 5G edge computing include processing at the radio terminal for applications in which lowest latency and highest accessibility to the user are desired. Other models include mini, cloud-enabled data centers being implemented at wireless distribution points throughout the network. And others have 5G as a relatively dumb pipe connecting various regional virtual cloud data hubs in a mesh network that is virtualized up and down the service stack.

Each use case has different pros and cons in which the final look and feel of 5G network computing won’t be determined until the money flows from users is mapped out. It will be years before the structure of edge networks are determined and fully codified into new standards, protocols, and economic models.

This seems important but didn’t leave the lab

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17710368-verizon-qualcomm-ericsson-demonstrate-dynamic-spectrum-sharing

About the trial
This latest 5G milestone in the US is an over-the-air, Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS) 5G data call that was successfully carried out in Ericsson’s lab in Richardson, Texas, by Verizon, Ericsson, and Qualcomm Technologies.  Ericsson Spectrum Sharing, part of Ericsson Radio System, enables a quick, flexible, and cost-effective upgrade to 5G within existing 4G carriers. The solution will dynamically share spectrum between 4G and 5G carriers based on traffic demand. The switch between carriers happens within milliseconds, which minimizes spectrum waste and allows for best end-user performance. It is compatible with all 5G FDD capable smartphones and other devices based on the Snapdragon 5G Mobile Platform with the Snapdragon X55 5G Modem-RF System, supporting the standardized spectrum sharing functionality.

Quite the table

Heisenberg pulled out this quote from the report:

The alarm bells are ringing loud and clear. Unless governments take decisive action to help boost investment, adapt their economies to the challenges of our time and build an open, fair and rules-based trading system, we are heading for a long-term future of low growth and declining living standards.

A new status quo for financial markets?

A Heisenberg post this morning has two elements in it – one BofA’s 2020 equity look-ahead, and two about the new status quo as a result of responses to 2008/09 crisis. The second is way more interesting imho. I found this piece brilliant.

He quotes often quoted Deutsche Bank’s analyst Kocic:

In its core, policy response to the crises was an extension of what in a political context is known as the state of exception: Market laws had to be suspended to restore normal functioning of the markets. The intrinsic contradiction of this maneuver is resolved only by understanding that suspension is temporary. Stimulus will have to be unwound. However, the accommodation has been in place for a very long time, during which traditional transmission mechanisms have atrophied and investors’ mindset has changed in a way that has altered irreversibly their behavior, the market functioning and its dynamics.

Engineering a state of exception comes with considerable risk. The Fed (and central banks in general) carries an implicit responsibility for orderly reemancipation of the markets, which makes stimulus unwind especially tricky. This highlights the deep dichotomy of power: While a state of exception is an exercise of power, there is a clear tendency to disown that power. And the only way to avoid facing the underlying dilemma is to never give up the power. This creates a new status quo — a permanent state of exception.

The question to be asked and answered over time and several different times is … are we now living in this permanent state of exception?

Mr Toad’s wild interest rate ride

Mr Toad’s ride over last 30 days has been a mini adventure for sure. Pontificating on the reasons would be folly imho … the data speaks for itself. The table at the end tells a story that too few people are talking about – think about the quantity of capital that was impacted by those moves … whew.

First, the longer duration visual (~6 months)

Second the limited duration visual (~30 days)

Third, the % change in the rates over those 30 days

30 yr 9.46%
10 yr 10.23%
2 yr 3.07%
3mo -7.74%

Questioning the assumption of senior housing demand

This post does a good job of articulating how generalized assumptions about demographic trends (in this case senior housing) are dangerous to one’s portfolio. This also points out in the conclusion something that i have noticed as well and has implications not just to senior housing but also healthcare services, quote: “For me, I am skeptical that swathes of baby boomers are going to opt into senior housing. They simply have so many other more attractive options. Perhaps personalizing it is key: ask yourself honestly what you would want when you reach retirement. Personally (and literally everyone I talk to that is of baby boomer age or older), I would want to stay in my home. Comfortable, familiar and paid off seems miles better than smaller, foreign and expensive.”

On yesterday’s Fed

The ever balanced Mr Duy posted a perspective that I found rational.

Heisenberg posted on the conflicting investment bank perspectives.

Today’s stock and bond markets responded after digesting the nuance and parsing … My personal perspective is that Powell may have dug himself out of an ugly hole into something more like normal; two key risks remain: a) liquidity in the technical plumbing as folks like to say, and b) non-predictable outbursts from maniacs with too much public air time.

‘Diligence and caution’ is the mantra going forward for risk-averse portfolio managers like me …

Industrial Output – not much attention

The Industrial Output report was published this morning and not much was said about it … my thought is that the GM strike and impact muted folks’ interest. I found it a bit alarming, even if you discount GM impact https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/default.htm

Yes, i know services are more important than manufacturing, but where does the money come from to pay for the services? Tourists? Seems rather parasitic if all the money made in services originated in services, right?

I’m keeping my eye on manufacturing and industrial production regardless of what the talking heads spew …