Category Archives: Macro

Tariff Scenarios

a good post from one of my favorite writers using tariff scenarios from Goldman bottom line – no scenario is stock positive … oh my!

interesting data bite Capacity utilization edged down to 77.5% in January from 77.7 in the prior month. The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation’s factories, mines and utilities. It’s still well below pre-recession levels, above 80%, that could fan production costs and prices

Uh Oh … consumer credit

If one holds that the consumer is the heartbeat of the US economy, UH OH  

Must Read

MarketWatch published an interesting article but placed it in the “Opinion” section which struck me VERY odd The article seems like only a data discussion on the delta between financial earnings and GAAP earnings … the mystery of legal financial engineering and its impact on perceived value of companies.  I found this VERY disturbing and… Read More »

WOW … hold on to your hats Right / Wrong / Indicative … who cares, this should get you thinking

Doug Short & Recession Leading Indicators

this is data thick and i believe Jeff Miller will comment on this over the weekend – few comment more concisely so i am looking forward to Jeff’s update. Doug has a way of putting data together and really pushing to find the right story … my take away is that we are still muddling… Read More »

Loan Demand Declining in US?

I found this an interesting read … this is not good news if this trend continues … an early indicator of economic activity, or at least business’ willingness to extend leverage at this time.

International Focus

there were a couple of articles today that focused on international data points rather than the US navel gazing in which many of us participate … First Dr H a good reminder that events and behaviors we have nothing to do with may change the short term and / or long term value of our… Read More »

DR H is at it again and he has my attention …. quote:  “Because it sows the seeds of its own demise by effectively ensuring that the next crisis is larger than the last.” …”That might seem far-fetched now, but don’t let the paradox be lost on you here. Central banks are trying to create inflation. The gamble is that… Read More »

China Debt

This is a thought provoking post (ignore the title as ‘click bait’ but do read the article)   i have to re-read several times before an opinion can be formed, but this seems to be some heavy digging into data to derive this picture … which at face value is pretty un-nerving