Category Archives: Macro

WOW … hold on to your hats Right / Wrong / Indicative … who cares, this should get you thinking

Doug Short & Recession Leading Indicators

this is data thick and i believe Jeff Miller will comment on this over the weekend – few comment more concisely so i am looking forward to Jeff’s update. Doug has a way of putting data together and really pushing to find the right story … my take away is that we are still muddling… Read More »

Loan Demand Declining in US?

I found this an interesting read … this is not good news if this trend continues … an early indicator of economic activity, or at least business’ willingness to extend leverage at this time.

International Focus

there were a couple of articles today that focused on international data points rather than the US navel gazing in which many of us participate … First Dr H a good reminder that events and behaviors we have nothing to do with may change the short term and / or long term value of our… Read More »

DR H is at it again and he has my attention …. quote:  “Because it sows the seeds of its own demise by effectively ensuring that the next crisis is larger than the last.” …”That might seem far-fetched now, but don’t let the paradox be lost on you here. Central banks are trying to create inflation. The gamble is that… Read More »

China Debt

This is a thought provoking post (ignore the title as ‘click bait’ but do read the article)   i have to re-read several times before an opinion can be formed, but this seems to be some heavy digging into data to derive this picture … which at face value is pretty un-nerving

Interest Rates – US direction

I posted several times recently that i will buy 10yr corp bonds with >3.7% yield to call and maturity.  My weekly update had a reference to Doug Short’s post on treasuries There is a bit more behind my bias toward flat or down rates (with some range on either side).  The key chart from Doug’s… Read More »

Central Banks – Stocks or Flows

Had to put my systems thinking hat on to read this  Author has it right imho … the flows matter more and from one perspective, some very strong flows are going to be removed, shut down … but the US Fed has only talked about how the stocks will be reduced and alarmingly nothing about… Read More »

Middle Class Wages / Debt —> Looming Storms?

here is the accompanying quote from the author:  “The U.S. middle class suffers from stagnant wages, and has not seen an increase in their standard of living in nearly 20 years. This is not sustainable in a consumer-based economy. At some point, debt availability will run out and consumers will have to drastically lower their… Read More »

St Louis Fed President Presentation

he’s probably on the most dovish of the governors … but worth a read.  I like his style, “… Probably not”.