Category Archives: Macro

Tariff Scenarios

a good post from one of my favorite writers using tariff scenarios from Goldman https://seekingalpha.com/article/4155949-tillerson-kudlow-cpi-oh bottom line – no scenario is stock positive … oh my!

interesting data bite

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/industrial-output-edges-down-in-january-ending-streak-of-four-monthly-gains-2018-02-15 Capacity utilization edged down to 77.5% in January from 77.7 in the prior month. The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation’s factories, mines and utilities. It’s still well below pre-recession levels, above 80%, that could fan production costs and prices

Uh Oh … consumer credit

If one holds that the consumer is the heartbeat of the US economy, UH OH https://seekingalpha.com/article/4139135-credit-card-delinquencies-surging  

Must Read

MarketWatch published an interesting article but placed it in the “Opinion” section which struck me VERY odd https://www.marketwatch.com/story/only-1-sector-has-experienced-real-earnings-gains-in-the-past-12-months-2018-01-16 The article seems like only a data discussion on the delta between financial earnings and GAAP earnings … the mystery of legal financial engineering and its impact on perceived value of companies.  I found this VERY disturbing and… Read More »

WOW … hold on to your hats

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4125665-generational-reset-will-redistribute-wealth-bottom-60-percent-near Right / Wrong / Indicative … who cares, this should get you thinking

Doug Short & Recession Leading Indicators

this is data thick and i believe Jeff Miller will comment on this over the weekend – few comment more concisely so i am looking forward to Jeff’s update. Doug has a way of putting data together and really pushing to find the right story … my take away is that we are still muddling… Read More »

Loan Demand Declining in US?

I found this an interesting read … https://seekingalpha.com/article/4124169-official-demand-slowing this is not good news if this trend continues … an early indicator of economic activity, or at least business’ willingness to extend leverage at this time.

International Focus

there were a couple of articles today that focused on international data points rather than the US navel gazing in which many of us participate … First Dr H https://seekingalpha.com/article/4121659-saudi-purge-crude-crash-course-geopolitics a good reminder that events and behaviors we have nothing to do with may change the short term and / or long term value of our… Read More »

DR H is at it again

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4121104-answering-question-why-continue-work and he has my attention …. quote:  “Because it sows the seeds of its own demise by effectively ensuring that the next crisis is larger than the last.” …”That might seem far-fetched now, but don’t let the paradox be lost on you here. Central banks are trying to create inflation. The gamble is that… Read More »

China Debt

This is a thought provoking post (ignore the title as ‘click bait’ but do read the article) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4115647-everything-think-know-chinese-finances-wrong   i have to re-read several times before an opinion can be formed, but this seems to be some heavy digging into data to derive this picture … which at face value is pretty un-nerving